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I really have not been to WDW in about four years, so I cannot comment on how it is these days. But when I did go somewhat often, I did notice that sometimes things ran more efficiently during crowed times than they did during the slow season.

But ride capacity (and staffing) did change with the seasons. Back before Space mountain had a dedicated fast pass side, only one track would run for the first few hours in the slower seasons.

If you pay attention to the load/unload at splash mountain, sometimes each queue has three lanes on each queue, others it's two...kind of neat to me how they can add/remove the railings in that area.

You can get an idea of how many boats they are running on Small World and Pirates based on how far back into the last scene or two you hit traffic waiting to get to unload.

I assume folks are saying they've been running rides that they can adjust at lower capacity...coaster can run fewer trains...and I assume you can run with a smaller staff when you reduce the ride capacity.

Anyway, I think Orlando is seeing a slow down. I noticed UNI has started offering FL a $75 dinning credit on a two night vacation package (might only be at SF). But I still think UNI is bringing more in by having more rooms this year.

Yes, late at night they shut down the second loading station for Pirates and same with BTM. But I haven't seen this type of thing going on during the day. Which late at night when Pirates is a walk on and sometimes sending half empty boats, I get not having two load areas. Universal does the same thing, in fact all parks do. But during the day when I have waited in a line or the wait time is high, I haven't seen the second loading or side closed down. Which is where I am confused about how it effects busy times capacity making lines longer.
 
Yes, late at night they shut down the second loading station for Pirates and same with BTM. But I haven't seen this type of thing going on during the day. Which late at night when Pirates is a walk on and sometimes sending half empty boats, I get not having two load areas. Universal does the same thing, in fact all parks do. But during the day when I have waited in a line or the wait time is high, I haven't seen the second loading or side closed down. Which is where I am confused about how it effects busy times capacity making lines longer.

All good and like I said, I have not been there in a long time, but what I am trying to say is that even when they run both sides at BTM, they could have one less train on the tracks.

For Splash, in the slower months they would have the close side and the far side open, but it was only during busy months where there would be a third loading/unload lane to the far left on the close side, during the slower months, that third lane would have themed railings that you might not notice are removable so only two load areas in the near queue instead of three and I assume less logs running.

If Pirates and Small world have five boats off-line, the line would move slower....stuff like that which might not be apparent.

I also assume they could have a higher ratio of FP+ to standby running which I would think would influence the STATS that TP runs.

I imagine you, as a local who visits often, would have a feel for demand based on FP+ being available....back in the day, we looked at operating hours to chose when we would go hoping to hit during slower times, but that got all out of whack the last few years I went and they would add hours to the park the same day we were there.

I think one thing that bothered me when we went during slower times, it was still difficult to find dining (I still recal when you could walk up to a touch screen in EPOCT in the AM and plan all your dining) but when we did have something set up far in advance, we would always see a bunch of empty tables as if they didn't staff properly for the number of folks that would have had table service if they could find it.

Anyway, I am just trying to add my $0.02 as to how rides could have lower capacity to keep wait times up even if attendance is down.
 
All good and like I said, I have not been there in a long time, but what I am trying to say is that even when they run both sides at BTM, they could have one less train on the tracks.

For Splash, in the slower months they would have the close side and the far side open, but it was only during busy months where there would be a third loading/unload lane to the far left on the close side, during the slower months, that third lane would have themed railings that you might not notice are removable so only two load areas in the near queue instead of three and I assume less logs running.

If Pirates and Small world have five boats off-line, the line would move slower....stuff like that which might not be apparent.

I also assume they could have a higher ratio of FP+ to standby running which I would think would influence the STATS that TP runs.

I imagine you, as a local who visits often, would have a feel for demand based on FP+ being available....back in the day, we looked at operating hours to chose when we would go hoping to hit during slower times, but that got all out of whack the last few years I went and they would add hours to the park the same day we were there.

I think one thing that bothered me when we went during slower times, it was still difficult to find dining (I still recal when you could walk up to a touch screen in EPOCT in the AM and plan all your dining) but when we did have something set up far in advance, we would always see a bunch of empty tables as if they didn't staff properly for the number of folks that would have had table service if they could find it.

Anyway, I am just trying to add my $0.02 as to how rides could have lower capacity to keep wait times up even if attendance is down.
Many of your points are very similar to the points Touring Plans is making. Some of the reasons for their changes to WDW come Jan. 2017.
 
Hindsight is 20/20, but my sense the past two weeks is that a lot of Brazilians did the Louisiana/Mardi Gras thing and waited for the Olympics to get out of town. Not sure it will make up for being down all Summer, but crowds have been surprisingly large for all of FL being back in school. Of course, come Sunday they'll all go home again.
 
Hindsight is 20/20, but my sense the past two weeks is that a lot of Brazilians did the Louisiana/Mardi Gras thing and waited for the Olympics to get out of town. Not sure it will make up for being down all Summer, but crowds have been surprisingly large for all of FL being back in school. Of course, come Sunday they'll all go home again.
Yeah, we did talk about that happening with the Brazilians. I think we were right on it happening, just like the summer with the World cup down there. That, plus combined with their economic woes. But, looking at the lines on Touring Plans, WDW seems to have had a pretty bad past two weeks (4's & 5's for just about every park, every day. That's Jan./Feb. type numbers). Universal looks normal though.
 
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Yeah, we did talk about that happening with the Brazilians. I think we were right on it happening, just like the summer with the World cup down there. That, plus combined with their economic woes. But, looking at the lines on Touring Plans, WDW seems to have had a pretty bad past two weeks (4's & 5's for just about every park, every day. That's Jan./Feb. type numbers). Universal looks normal though.

Yeah, the crowds at Sea World and especially Universal last week are what turned me around--felt like the only American in packed parks. I still think WDW is down--but I think more of an American issue than anyone wants to let on. Brazilian downturn and June tragedies made effective scapegoats this Summer for what are fundamental flaws in their main market.
 
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What caused the Orlando park slowdown? WDW, with a dose of reduced Brazilian traffic.

The economy of Orlando is not in recession. Other theme parks are doing well. Even the other Sea World parks have recovered. It is WDW that brings people to the Orlando parks. It has affected Sea World more and UO less. The slowdown in Brazil has made the numbers worse, but it would have been a downturn without it.

If it wasn't for Easter falling in the first quarter WDW's 2% first quarter downturn would have been much worse and this would have been apparent much earlier. The downturn has been going on all this year.

Nothing happened the beginning of this year to cause this. Many visitors to WDW book many months in advance. The catalyst started last summer with the rumors then announcements of Star Wars and Toy Story at DHS.

WDW has been positioning itself as a premium product at a premium price. It has been declining by degrees for years. The realization that the big new projects would not be ready for years, coupled with the loss of existing attractions to make space was the catalyst. Add in people seeing the night attractions for AK not being ready til the next year and Avatar the year after and many decided it was not worth the trip in the near future.

WDW can see the reservation numbers long before we do. They knew this was coming. The bit about trading a decline in attendance for quality of experience was all about WDW. They could either accept what was happening and maximize profit or sacrifice profit for attendance. They chose the first.

The plan to move attendance to slower times was DL. Their guests are more local and can easily make changes that shift attendance. WDW made some token efforts in this area but their guests travel much further. The economy of Orlando is service based with a low average income. WDW has already out priced many locals, so it is hard to shift attendance locally when many locals are not coming in the first place. Long distance guests are not affected by these changes much since park prices are often a small part of their vacation cost.

WDW is out of cheap and easy tools to prevent this decline. Star Wars and Frozen short term attractions don't do it anymore. Frozen was rushed into EPCOT. It was expected to dramatically boost attendance. It failed to do so. EPCOT needs much more help than one revamped attraction can do. AK has a limping night lineup and Avatar might not be ready til next fall. DHS is a half a park for years to come.

Again, all WDW has to do is sacrafice profits short term to boost attendance. Current and rumored future cuts do not make this likely. WDW is not looking like a premium product but they are still acting like it is. At least some in the public have caught up to this and are deciding not to visit.

This is hurting UO. Not having anything big new for two years made them more vulnerable this year. Getting Kong and Hulk open, more hotels opening and multiple projects opening next year will help. I suspect there will be more Universal only vacations for many in the future. But Universal still depends on WDW to a good extent to bring guests to Orlando. Any downturn at WDW will affect them.

This could go on for years. Q3 is likely down for WDW. Q1 next year will compare to an early 2016 Easter so it is likely down. If Q4 is down that will make over a year of down attendance. No wonder DL didn't want to be associated with WDW.
 
Lots of real good points. I largely agree with this, and except for a few minor tweaks, if I was writing a summation I would say basically the same things. The big problem is that Disney has rested on their laurels so long, that even with the two new lands Avatar & Star Wars (I'm not counting Toy Story since it appears it's being budget downsized to the point it's inconsequential), they will have a long way to go to get their non MK parks to a point that they're equal in quality to IOA and Universal Studio parks.
 
Lots of real good points. I largely agree with this, and except for a few minor tweaks, if I was writing a summation I would say basically the same things. The big problem is that Disney has rested on their laurels so long, that even with the two new lands Avatar & Star Wars (I'm not counting Toy Story since it appears it's being budget downsized to the point it's inconsequential), they will have a long way to go to get their non MK parks to a point that they're equal in quality to IOA and Universal Studio parks.
It looks like doing little then going big is hurting them. People are getting excited for the future. Many have decided to wait for the future. Too bad quarterly reports are based on the present.
 
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It looks like doing little then going big is hurting them. People are getting excited for the future. Many have decided to wait for the future. Too bad quarterly reports are based on the present.
You know, I like what I see with Avatar, except, that besides the garden walk area, there doesn't appear to be much to do outside of the attractions, unlike Diagon, where you can spend hours or days looking at, experiencing and examining all that's there. But I don't see it as a big resort wide attendance boost, maybe low medium at best. I think it will help AK individually, but not so the whole resort. Now, Star Wars Land is a different animal. That will trigger a large percentage attendance increase for the whole resort. But, the problem is, that's far away in a far off galaxy almost. And WDW might do an awful lot of hemoraging by then unless they embrace some nifty discount programs.
 
At least some in the public have caught up to this and are deciding not to visit.

Brilliant post.

I think it's possible to undersell this point tho. Based on anecdotal evidence--out of town friends, people I meet in resort bars--guests recognize the problems caused by MM+, even if they don't see the causal relationship. They know streets are more crowded than they were, and that Pirates and Mansion didn't use to have hour lines. Premium customers (well, those who aren't seemingly addicted to Pixie Dust) recognize quicker than most when they're not getting a premium product. They recognized Frozen as a cheap overlay, and see the fading quality of the hotels. And you're right, choosing not to visit more than choosing to visit Universal only, tho both are bad for WDW.

I'm still not sold on Avatar as a crowd-driver. And frankly I'm still not 100% sold on Star Wars--it's a decade too late. Force Awakens made records based on Gen X nostalgia. By 2020, many of our kids will be aging out of the Disney demographic. "Oh dad, that's cute you want to visit Star Wars land, but Ministry of Magic just opened up!" And even if the IP is a draw, Disney won't have leveraged an IP into a successful ride for decades at that point.
 
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Brilliant post.

I think it's possible to undersell this point tho. Based on anecdotal evidence--out of town friends, people I meet in resort bars--guests recognize the problems caused by MM+, even if they don't see the causal relationship. They know streets are more crowded than they were, and that Pirates and Mansion didn't use to have hour lines. Premium customers (well, those who aren't seemingly addicted to Pixie Dust) recognize quicker than most when they're not getting a premium product. They recognized Frozen as a cheap overlay, and see the fading quality of the hotels. And you're right, choosing not to visit more than choosing to visit Universal only, tho both are bad for WDW.

I'm still not sold on Avatar as a crowd-driver. And frankly I'm still not 100% sold on Star Wars--it's a decade too late. Force Awakens made records based on Gen X nostalgia. By 2020, many of our kids will be aging out of the Disney demographic. "Oh dad, that's cute you want to visit Star Wars land, but Ministry of Magic just opened up!" And even if the IP is a draw, Disney won't have leveraged an IP into a successful ride for decades at that point.
Your points are well taken. Yes, the harm done by My Magic plus in increasing line times is certainly a factor. And all that planning required is a vacation burden for many.
 
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Was there a noticeable uptick in Disney attendance the past two weekends since Seasonal blackout dates are over?
 
MM+ and Express Pass have both turned me off from going to Orlando during the busy times. But not everyone has that flexibility of schedule I have.

MM+ and Magical Express are great tools to help keep WDW guests on property. I wonder if some guests that want to go to Universal during their trip decided that staying on Disney property is just not worth it due to the hassles.

I have my doubts about Star Wars land. This is mainly due to Star Wars being everywhere. I can't help but think there's going to be some burn out at some point.
 
I'm still not sold on Avatar as a crowd-driver. And frankly I'm still not 100% sold on Star Wars--it's a decade too late. Force Awakens made records based on Gen X nostalgia. By 2020, many of our kids will be aging out of the Disney demographic. "Oh dad, that's cute you want to visit Star Wars land, but Ministry of Magic just opened up!" And even if the IP is a draw, Disney won't have leveraged an IP into a successful ride for decades at that point.
I can forgive you being skeptical about Avatar, but not Star Wars. It's just factually incorrect that only "Gen Xers" went to the movie and that's why it made $2 BILLION. I'm in my mid-20's and have have a sibling as young as 15 years younger. Disney has magnificently marketed to kids with the animated shows, the Jedi show that's been running in the park for YEARS and endless merch. I saw it with agroup of about 15 - 10 adults, 5 kids under 9 - Every single kid loved it, while some of the older crowd didn't (Ya know, the ones who compare it to A New Hope).

Star Wars is evergreen. It's just a matter of Disney not botching the land.