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Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter quinnmac000
  • Start date Start date Apr 28, 2020
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Nick

Nick

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AlexanderMBush said:
In the terms of this weekend, Free Guy takes the #1 spot domestically for 25 million; exceeding the expectations originally placed onto the film itself.



So much so that like Cruella, Disney is seemingly looking to get the green light going for Free Guy 2.

Click to expand...

Disney supposedly has been in love with the thought of this as a new franchise ever since they acquired FOX and after seeing the reviews and watching the movie, I’m soooo glad Free Guy is getting a sequel!
 
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Viator

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I admittedly wonder about Free Guy in all this. It's getting highly positive receptions from critics and audiences, has an A on Cinemascore and has a few weeks before Shang-Chi comes in. I wonder if it might have a legitimate chance to have legs over the next month or so; especially with films beginning to be pushed back slightly.
 
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Viator

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AlexanderMBush said:
I admittedly wonder about Free Guy in all this. It's getting highly positive receptions from critics and audiences, has an A on Cinemascore and has a few weeks before Shang-Chi comes in. I wonder if it might have a legitimate chance to have legs over the next month or so; especially with films beginning to be pushed back slightly.
Click to expand...

A DP, but the weekend revenues are now in: Free Guy actually earned 28.4 million on domestic this weekend; marking the highest for an original large-budget film this year.

variety.com

Box Office: ‘Free Guy’ Debuts at No. 1 With Surprisingly Strong $28.4 Million

"Free Guy" with Ryan Reynolds is leading box office charts.
variety.com variety.com

Don't Breathe 2 also raked in a bit of profits, earning 10.6 million; with Jungle Cruise at 9 million; and Respect at fourth at 8.8.
 
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quinnmac000

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Disney may be popping a celebratory bottle of champagne, but movie theater operators are facing a dire situation. The box office recovery has come in fits and starts, and it has been a mostly homogenous demographic showing up to the movies. So far, the highest grossing movies of the year — Marvel’s comic book adventure “Black Widow” ($178 million), Universal’s “F9: The Fast Saga” ($172 million), Paramount’s thriller “A Quiet Place Part II” ($159 million) and, by a wide gap, the Warner Bros. tentpole “Godzilla vs. Kong” ($99 million) — are all-audience films that appeal to a slightly older group, mainly between the ages of 18 and 35. For “Free Guy,” 59% of opening weekend ticket buyers were male and nearly 80% were above the age of 18.

Notably absent from the year’s biggest earners? Movies geared toward family audiences. In pre-pandemic times, kid-friendly features had been crucial for attendance levels — and popcorn sales (families often splurge at the concessions stand). Currently, kids under the age of 12 aren’t able to get vaccinated, making it less appealing for parents to take the whole family to the movies.

“You see a $28 million opening for “Free Guy” and think theaters are doing great, but we’re talking about an audience that is mostly single males,” Bock says. “They certainly aren’t spending a lot on concessions compared to families.”


variety.com

‘Free Guy’ Beat Box Office Expectations, but Movie Theaters Still Have a Big Problem

"Free Guy" marks a win, but movie theaters are bracing for a tough road ahead.
variety.com variety.com

Its stuff like that that makes me fear for the future of film.
 
Nick

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quinnmac000 said:
Disney may be popping a celebratory bottle of champagne, but movie theater operators are facing a dire situation. The box office recovery has come in fits and starts, and it has been a mostly homogenous demographic showing up to the movies. So far, the highest grossing movies of the year — Marvel’s comic book adventure “Black Widow” ($178 million), Universal’s “F9: The Fast Saga” ($172 million), Paramount’s thriller “A Quiet Place Part II” ($159 million) and, by a wide gap, the Warner Bros. tentpole “Godzilla vs. Kong” ($99 million) — are all-audience films that appeal to a slightly older group, mainly between the ages of 18 and 35. For “Free Guy,” 59% of opening weekend ticket buyers were male and nearly 80% were above the age of 18.

Notably absent from the year’s biggest earners? Movies geared toward family audiences. In pre-pandemic times, kid-friendly features had been crucial for attendance levels — and popcorn sales (families often splurge at the concessions stand). Currently, kids under the age of 12 aren’t able to get vaccinated, making it less appealing for parents to take the whole family to the movies.

“You see a $28 million opening for “Free Guy” and think theaters are doing great, but we’re talking about an audience that is mostly single males,” Bock says. “They certainly aren’t spending a lot on concessions compared to families.”

variety.com

‘Free Guy’ Beat Box Office Expectations, but Movie Theaters Still Have a Big Problem

"Free Guy" marks a win, but movie theaters are bracing for a tough road ahead.
variety.com variety.com

Its stuff like that that makes me fear for the future of film.
Click to expand...
Film has a great future. Theaters don't.

I would argue Jungle Cruise has been a relatively successful family film, though, and it is almost certainly going to pass GvK in domestic gross and get over the $100M mark.
 
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quinnmac000

quinnmac000

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Nick said:
Film has a great future. Theaters don't.

I would argue Jungle Cruise has been a relatively successful family film, though, and it is almost certainly going to pass GvK in domestic gross and get over the $100M mark.
Click to expand...

More so the question is how many families went to see Jungle Cruise...

It seems 66% of the audience who went to see Jungle Cruise was over 18 which still goes into that demo that only adults are showing up to the movies...

Jungle Cruise
Click to expand...
did well with audiences earning an A- CinemaScore, which is the same Johnson received on Rampage and San Andreas. CinemaScore/Screen Engine audience exits on PostTrak were very good with 80% in the top two boxes and a 60% from the general audience, while kids under 12 enjoyed the Disney theme park-inspired pic even more with 87% positive and a 70% recommend. Males showed up at 52%, females at 48% with 52% over 25 with 34% under 17 years old. Diversity demos were 55% Caucasian, 18% Latino, 13% Black, & 14% Asian/other.
Click to expand...

In other news...
variety.com

‘Hotel Transylvania 4’ Skipping Theaters as Sony Nears Over $100 Million Deal With Amazon (EXCLUSIVE)

Sony and Amazon are near a $100 million deal for the animated feature 'Hotel Transylvania: Transformania' to stream on Amazon Prime Video.
variety.com variety.com
 
Nick

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quinnmac000 said:
In other news...
variety.com

‘Hotel Transylvania 4’ Skipping Theaters as Sony Nears Over $100 Million Deal With Amazon (EXCLUSIVE)

Sony and Amazon are near a $100 million deal for the animated feature 'Hotel Transylvania: Transformania' to stream on Amazon Prime Video.
variety.com variety.com
Click to expand...
Sony has been the smartest studio this whole pandemic. Instead of releasing movies to theaters, they've been selling almost all of theirs to streamers so they are guaranteed to at least make back the money they spent on the films. They've sold a ton of movies to Netflix as well such as Vivo, Mitchells vs. the Machines, Wish Dragon, Hansel and Gretel, etc.
 
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quinnmac000

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Nick said:
Sony has been the smartest studio this whole pandemic. Instead of releasing movies to theaters, they've been selling almost all of theirs to streamers so they are guaranteed to at least make back the money they spent on the films. They've sold a ton of movies to Netflix as well such as Vivo, Mitchells vs. the Machines, Wish Dragon, Hansel and Gretel, etc.
Click to expand...

I think its complicated...for the animators who thought they were going to be on the big screen, it has to be disappointing as well as for some of the talent. I know Pixar staff got upset they didn't even get the hybrid release.
 
Clive

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Any movie that counts kids under 13 as a large portion of their audience is in a difficult position, as many families are justifiably wary of returning to theaters before they can get vaccinated. In other words, I think the sale is a good move, as were the other animated flicks. (It doesn't hurt that some of those films weren't particularly good, and they probably stood to make more from a sale than a traditional theatrical bow, even in more normal times.)
 
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PerceptiveCoot

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Clive said:
Any movie that counts kids under 13 as a large portion of their audience is in a difficult position, as many families are justifiably wary of returning to theaters before they can get vaccinated. In other words, I think the sale is a good move, as were the other animated flicks. (It doesn't hurt that some of those films weren't particularly good, and they probably stood to make more from a sale than a traditional theatrical bow, even in more normal times.)
Click to expand...
I also think there is a larger trend towards families staying at home. Look at the underperformance of various high-profile animated films in 2019. Whether that's because the quality of offerings on streaming has increased or because parents have been burned by too many crappy movies, I think this trend is going to continue post-pandemic, especially if you're not a marquee animation brand like Disney or Dreamworks.

This sucks for Sony though. They've been working hard to cultivate a unique style and the recognition gets deferred to streaming services.
 
Clive

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PerceptiveCoot said:
I also think there is a larger trend towards families staying at home. Look at the underperformance of various high-profile animated films in 2019. Whether that's because the quality of offerings on streaming has increased or because parents have been burned by too many crappy movies, I think this trend is going to continue post-pandemic, especially if you're not a marquee animation brand like Disney or Dreamworks.

This sucks for Sony though. They've been working hard to cultivate a unique style and the recognition gets deferred to streaming services.
Click to expand...

Not to beat the dead horse, but the "theatrical experience" is largely to blame for this, as well. It's hard to keep kids still and well-behaved during a movie. Even with child prices, you're still looking at large admission fees. And while adults can easily choose to forgo popcorn, sodas, and candy, kids have no such restraint. Going to the movies as a family shouldn't cost $100+, but if it does, you're only going to bother for the largest, can't-miss films. (To your point - Disney and some Dreamworks output.) I'm not convinced the theatrical business is all that practical for families at the scale it needs to support all of these movies.
 
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Nick

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Clive said:
Not to beat the dead horse, but the "theatrical experience" is largely to blame for this, as well. It's hard to keep kids still and well-behaved during a movie. Even with child prices, you're lucky at large admission fees. And while adults can easily choose to forgo popcorn, sodas, and candy, kids have no such restraint. Going to the movies as a family shouldn't cost $100+, but if it does, you're only going to bother for the largest, can't-miss films. (To your point - Disney and some Dreamworks output.) I'm not convinced the theatrical business is all that practical for families at the scale it needs to support all of these movies.
Click to expand...
Especially when you can just subscribe to Netflix and you're guaranteed at least one new movie per week. Their not always family movies, but there's normally at least 2 high profile ones per month.
 
Nick

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Free Guy had pretty much the best hold of any movie all summer, dropping only 33.8% week over week, and bringing in another $18.8M domestic and getting to $111M worldwide, which means it’s made more than it’s production budget at the very least ($100M). Obviously the lack of competition this weekend helped a lot, but good word of mouth also must have helped.

 
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Viator

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Nick said:
Free Guy had pretty much the best hold of any movie all summer, dropping only 33.8% week over week, and bringing in another $18.8M domestic and getting to $111M worldwide, which means it’s made more than it’s production budget at the very least ($100M). Obviously the lack of competition this weekend helped a lot, but good word of mouth also must have helped.

Click to expand...


It's going to be super interesting to see how it fares in China, as it'll be the first non-sequel IP film on a large scale released in that country in a while by a US studio. I'll be very interested to know how exactly it fares, especially with the script and visuals.
 
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Nick

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AlexanderMBush said:
It's going to be super interesting to see how it fares in China, as it'll be the first non-sequel IP film on a large scale released in that country in a while by a US studio. I'll be very interested to know how exactly it fares, especially with the script and visuals.
Click to expand...
Right now it’s still a struggle to get release dates in China though. I mean, Black Widow still doesn’t have a release date, despite being approved to be shown in the country.
 
quinnmac000

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variety.com

Why Hollywood Movies are Being Squeezed Out in China, and What Happens Next

Hollywood films are struggling to do business in China, but whether that can be turned around by year's end is a political question.
variety.com variety.com
 
Nick

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Worth mentioning that Free Guy got a quick Chinese release date during its initial run which is a rarity these days. Just like how very few Chinese films make it over to the US as popular movies, I think we're going to see the same happen in China and films from outside of the country just are not resonating with audiences. Luca opened to only $5M this past week, for example. Now Pixar doesn't always hit a home run in China, but they just did with Soul at $100M total in China this past year so a $5M open is pretty low.
 
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SailwiththeTide

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quinnmac000 said:
Feige already is angry about Black Widow going to Premiere Access...Marvel films were made for cinema...marvel shows are made just for Disney+. This is how you get him to walk away.
Click to expand...
quinnmac000 said:
Marvel films were made for cinema.
Click to expand...
Honestly putting them on Disney + is fine. They are popular for sure and I am in the minority but there is MCU fatigue.
 
Nick

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SailwiththeTide said:
Honestly putting them on Disney + is fine. They are popular for sure and I am in the minority but there is MCU fatigue.
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t classify it as fatigue yet as audiences still highly enjoy it, but especially with the Disney+ shows now AND four movies per year, there’s definitely over saturation.
 
HalfGlass

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Nick said:
I wouldn’t classify it as fatigue yet as audiences still highly enjoy it, but especially with the Disney+ shows now AND four movies per year, there’s definitely over saturation.
Click to expand...
I’m curious how many shows we will get every year moving forward. I’m thinking 4-5, which is absolutely insane. Like next year we will most likely get Ms. Marvel, Moon Knight, She-Hulk, Secret Invasion, Guardians Holiday Special and possibly Armor Wars.
 
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