I'm sitting here waiting for a deployment to finish, and I've got some time, so I'll pick up the gauntlet. No assumptions were made in my post, so here's the math.
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After just a single week of use (and this is the EASIEST pass to break even on because of the cheaper express nights), you already need to be spending a minimum of 100 per person, per night to make up for what Universal is "losing" (assuming express does not sell out). Plus, the "assuming 100% margin" is doing an insane amount of lifting. Obviously, you'd need to spend anywhere from 1.3 to 2.0 these numbers. And for the sake of argument, let's say you were spending that kind of money per night. I would contend the following:
- If you choose to reallocate any money to single night express, then you're purchasing a higher margin product anyway.
- In Universal's eyes, you're very likely to spend at least some money anyway on food, beverage, and merch anyway because you'll probably still need to eat at the event.
Plus, It's a pretty well documented fact that people use more of something when it's available, and everyone here is talking about expressmaxxing, so the usage of these passes is likely higher than average.
At the end of the day, I'm just some random dude on the internet running numbers, and I can come up with the basic math that shows that Universal doesn't need to do this anymore. And, if at some point they do, they will bring it back. Affordability is simply not a concern to Universal if they have the ability to replace you with someone else with higher margins (and right now, they do). At worst, this impacts, what, 3000 people, if not a single one comes back? Somehow, I really doubt that is the case. I suspect it will be more like this:
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At the end of the day, I'll be waiting in the regular lines anyway, so...