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Universal Studios Florida: What Do We Think About It?

  • Thread starter Thread starter belloq87
  • Start date Start date Nov 25, 2023
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Evan

Evan

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  • Today at 11:07 AM
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Mad Dog said:
That downward trend continues. I's guess IOA & USF are also both down for 2025 to date also. Of course, a new park, puts
the overall 2025 attendance above the previous year...USF received some small budget additions while IOA hasn't really gotten
anything since Velocicoaster. New attractions always drive attendance. Probably a result of most of the budget being diverted to Epic build,
and the other parks mostly stagnant on D/E attractions since Velocicoaster..
Click to expand...

So my theory that Epic may just cannibalize their own parks could be correct?

What is the overall attendance increase for the resort needed to make the expansion seen as a success?
 
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UniversalRBLX

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Evan said:
So my theory that Epic may just cannibalize their own parks could be correct?

What is the overall attendance increase for the resort needed to make the expansion seen as a success?
Click to expand...
Cannibalize their existing parks, but the overall resort attendance will increase. The first sign of Epic Universe impacting the parks division was a 19% increase in revenue... offset by a 26% increase in operating expenses. So the question is if Universal can operate 3 parks profitably in the long-term (which they will - just a matter of when its made obvious to investors). The ultimate goal of Epic is to increase hotel nights per stay.. that's the revenue generator.
 
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Brian G.

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  • Today at 11:46 AM
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Evan said:
So my theory that Epic may just cannibalize their own parks could be correct?

What is the overall attendance increase for the resort needed to make the expansion seen as a success?
Click to expand...

We gotta give it a few years before any theories can be proven. 2024 could be an outlier year because, usually, people put off vacations to wait for the new thing (Epic). Trends are more important.
 
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Evan

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  • Today at 11:49 AM
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UniversalRBLX said:
Cannibalize their existing parks, but the overall resort attendance will increase. The first sign of Epic Universe impacting the parks division was a 19% increase in revenue... offset by a 26% increase in operating expenses. So the question is if Universal can operate 3 parks profitably in the long-term (which they will - just a matter of when its made obvious to investors). The ultimate goal of Epic is to increase hotel nights per stay.. that's the revenue generator.
Click to expand...

Thank you, this is the kind of thinking I want to get into. What is the number they need to reach to say “it worked”, and by what date.
 
UniversalRBLX

UniversalRBLX

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Evan said:
Thank you, this is the kind of thinking I want to get into. What is the number they need to reach to say “it worked”, and by what date.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, Universal doesn't provide occupancy rates like the Disney reports, so it's hard to figure out if occupancy rates are up/down with the increased number of hotel rooms.

As long as revenue continues to increase, and offset the increased operating expenses of running 3 parks, they will be fine.

I'd imagine in a 2-3 year time-span we should see results.
 
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Mad Dog

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UniversalRBLX said:
Unfortunately, Universal doesn't provide occupancy rates like the Disney reports, so it's hard to figure out if occupancy rates are up/down with the increased number of hotel rooms.

As long as revenue continues to increase, and offset the increased operating expenses of running 3 parks, they will be fine.

I'd imagine in a 2-3 year time-span we should see results.
Click to expand...
There were a ton of heavy room discounts since Epic opened, so I don't know if they're reaching their goals. Terra a ghost town often
on weekdays, Stella a bit better. Weekends they're both filled. Both Stella and Terra hotels cut employee hours back during July/August.
There was that one month long stretch, from early August, where nearly every hotel on site was heavily discounted. AP prices, at the
non deluxe hotels, for a Holiday week (Thanksgiving), are real inexpensive at this point in time. So, it appears there's probably some
softness out there.
Conversely, Columbus Day Holiday week was real crowded at the parks and hotels.
....and....one positive....for guests....IOA and USF were very uncomfortable parks to visit during their high attendance year in 2022.
Neither park has adequate capacity for attendance over 10/11 million per. The attraction and food lines were terribly long in 2022,
and that might have discouraged many tourists from coming back. Operations are so much smoother, and attraction/food lines reasonably
comfortable at the present attendance. As a guest that's a good thing. For me personally, that factor is why I've scheduled my longest
Universal only vacation this November (17 nights). I'm looking forward to a leisurely and relaxing vacation at Universal, like it used to be
before covid.
 
Last edited: Today at 1:26 PM
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belloq87

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  • Today at 1:56 PM
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UniversalRBLX said:
I don't know where to put this, TEA attendance report came out and suggests that more guests visited USF than IOA in 2024.
Click to expand...
That's somewhat concerning to me.

I had been hoping, for this park's future, that it would get hit much harder than IOA. Little incentive for the kind of overhaul I think the park needs if it's outpacing the (far) superior park next door.
 
Jake S

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Do we have any idea how Horror Nights plays into this? As in, does this report count attendees to hard-ticket events like Horror Nights or any of the 10 billion parties they through at Disney World?
 
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Clive

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Can we please remember that TEA attendance reports are notoriously unreliable?
 
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Brian G.

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  • Today at 2:17 PM
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Jake S said:
Do we have any idea how Horror Nights plays into this? As in, does this report count attendees to hard-ticket events like Horror Nights or any of the 10 billion parties they through at Disney World?
Click to expand...

I don't believe they do. I also seem to remember that Disney counts "park hopping" in some way. The numbers are very fudged, basically.

Clive said:
Can we please remember that TEA attendance reports are notoriously unreliable?
Click to expand...
Also that haha
 
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Mad Dog

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Brian G. said:
I don't believe they do. I also seem to remember that Disney counts "park hopping" in some way. The numbers are very fudged, basically.


Also that haha
Click to expand...
I think Disney just counts the first park....and not the others, at least that's the way I remember reading....But yes, the TEA
stuff is definitely a lot of guesswork, especially on Orlando parks. But, TEA probably still indicates trends. Heck, we've constantly
seen revenue drops at Universal since after the first quarter 2023. We're only guessing revenue from the non Epic parks since Epic
opened though, since Universal did not break it down, park by park, in their last quarterly report. The total resort is bound to
increase revenue since there's one more park and three more hotels. But all those official Universal quarterly reports clearly
indicate a loss in revenue and attendance since the halcyon year 2022. Some of that 2024 drop is probably equated to guests
delaying vacations waiting for Epic to open. I'm sure Universal factored that into the drop in revenue expectation.
 
Last edited: Today at 2:31 PM
UniversalRBLX

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  • Today at 2:47 PM
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Clive said:
Can we please remember that TEA attendance reports are notoriously unreliable?
Click to expand...
Yes, that has to be said. But they're not dramatically off and are somewhat useful for trends.

Universal themselves have confirmed attendance is down for the past few years, and TEA numbers back that up. They're off, but likely within a 5-10% accuracy range of their reported number.

belloq87 said:
That's somewhat concerning to me.

I had been hoping, for this park's future, that it would get hit much harder than IOA. Little incentive for the kind of overhaul I think the park needs if it's outpacing the (far) superior park next door.
Click to expand...
The "Epcot effect". Universal knows USF needs creative help... but they also know the park is artificially carried by Mardi Gras, HHN and the Holiday seasons.

Jake S said:
Do we have any idea how Horror Nights plays into this? As in, does this report count attendees to hard-ticket events like Horror Nights or any of the 10 billion parties they through at Disney World?
Click to expand...
I'd imagine HHN has an impact simply due to Stay & Scream. I don' think they're adding HHN attendance to this, but HHN certainly gives a boost to USF for stay & scream. Heck, the Early Scream ticket is very popular and that's counting as a tick for USF.


I don't think these numbers are awful or unexpected (except for USH - that's worrisome). They're a great benchmark for the health of the industry.
 
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belloq87

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  • Today at 2:54 PM
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UniversalRBLX said:
Universal knows USF needs creative help.
Click to expand...
Are we sure about this?
 
Clive

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UniversalRBLX said:
Universal themselves have confirmed attendance is down for the past few years, and TEA numbers back that up. They're off, but likely within a 5-10% accuracy range of their reported number.
Click to expand...

How are you estimating that figure, though?

TEA has always been about "vibes." It's a black box, and you shouldn't trust black boxes.

Anyone here observing trends and reading publicly available reports could probably produce more accurate numbers.
 
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Mad Dog

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  • Today at 3:27 PM
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Clive said:
How are you estimating that figure, though?

TEA has always been about "vibes." It's a black box, and you shouldn't trust black boxes.

Anyone here observing trends and reading publicly available reports could probably produce more accurate numbers.
Click to expand...
I watch crowd lines and quarterly reports religiously, so I think TEA % drops on USF and IOA are fairly close. I don't follow
USH much, so I wouldn't even guess how close TEA is to actuals. But, one thing I do know, looking at past USH
attendances in relation to new D/E ticket rides/shows. It seems USH reacts more strongly than the typical theme
park to new attractions. First they do a tremendous increase, followed by a sharp drop off after the newness wears off.
Their highs and lows are more than other major parks. So, following that train of thought, next year should be a real
strong year for USH, as long as the coaster performs reliably.
 
UniversalRBLX

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  • Today at 3:30 PM
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belloq87 said:
Are we sure about this?
Click to expand...
No, but they know the general fan sentiment about the park's existing status. But they also know it's primarily an event park now... so there's less financial concern to get it in the right space. USF being attended more than IOA speaks to how well received their special events are.

Clive said:
How are you estimating that figure, though?

TEA has always been about "vibes." It's a black box, and you shouldn't trust black boxes.

Anyone here observing trends and reading publicly available reports could probably produce more accurate numbers.
Click to expand...
I've been working on some analysis in the background (working backwards from publicly recorded wait-time data, knowing what the ride's capacity is, and trying to estimate the park's attendance level). It's not perfect, but it's not like they're off by a million guests. Looking at data we know, like financial reports, TEA is generally aligned with what the park reports.
 
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Mad Dog

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UniversalRBLX said:
No, but they know the general fan sentiment about the park's existing status. But they also know it's primarily an event park now... so there's less financial concern to get it in the right space. USF being attended more than IOA speaks to how well received their special events are.


I've been working on some analysis in the background (working backwards from publicly recorded wait-time data, knowing what the ride's capacity is, and trying to estimate the park's attendance level). It's not perfect, but it's not like they're off by a million guests. Looking at data we know, like financial reports, TEA is generally aligned with what the park reports.
Click to expand...
I agree. The attendance drop off evidence was right in Universals own quarterly reports revenue wise, even though
they don't give attendance numbers. Bottom line, revenue means more than attendance, so that's the key anyway. Different
attendance mixes play into per guest spending. On site tourists are generally higher guest spending than day trip locals or day
trippers from WDW. Revenue hasn't met past quarterly comparisons since spring 2023.
 
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Cup_Of_Coffee

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  • 26 minutes ago
  • #1,478
All of this is simply why we have Butterbeer in CityWalk now.
 
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